Chip stocks rebounded from their intraday lows after heavy selling on Tuesday, but the sector still finished lower. U.S. consumer inflation data due today will be an important test of whether that buying can continue.

The Treasury fund rose while gold and silver funds fell, a reminder that assets do not all respond to the same news in the same way. Alongside lower prices, I am watching which boundaries buyers can defend on pullbacks.

Key takeaways

  • The intraday rebound slowed the selling; judging whether a new uptrend has begun requires buying to continue in subsequent sessions. Ahead of an important release, I distinguish an initial price jump from a reason to open a new position.
  • The headline inflation rate is only part of the picture. Slower price increases outside food and energy help show how widely cost pressure has spread. The response in Treasury yields can also affect what investors pay today for technology companies' future earnings.
  • For bank earnings, how profits grow matters alongside the growth itself. Customer borrowing, interest paid on deposits, and troubled loans need to be read together. Strong reported results do not automatically lift shares, making that distinction more useful.

What happened?

  • Reuters reports that economists expect annual U.S. consumer inflation (CPI) to rise from 3.4% in August to 3.6% in September when today's report is released. Gasoline and food costs contribute to that expectation. If the expected acceleration spreads to other prices, it could complicate the outlook for investors expecting rate cuts.
  • CNBC's market update says JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs shares all finished Tuesday lower as earnings season began. Results met a mixed reception, with questions about how far high rates may limit continued financial activity. Today's Bank of America and Morgan Stanley results will add evidence on that issue.
  • According to AP, Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said an attack on an Aramco facility in the country's Eastern Province on October 13 caused a limited fire in an administrative building. Attacks on energy infrastructure pose a risk of greater inflation pressure if oil production or transportation is disrupted.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Yesterday's note examined the conditions for a recovery in metals after Monday's chip selloff. In the new session, buyers returned to chip stocks at the lows, while gold and silver funds fell again. That divergence weakens the assumption that improvement in Treasuries will support every asset at the same pace.

Market levels

U.S. indexes and technology

  • SPY ($SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, finished Tuesday at $778.01. The session low of $775.95 is a nearby support candidate; clearing the $778.75 high is the first threshold for buying to extend beyond the session's range.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, last closed at $743.57. Tuesday's $744.20 high is the first confirmation threshold; whether support appears again at the session low of $738.83 will test the strength of selling pressure.
  • Semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) finished at $588.12 after falling as low as $574.75; the daily low is a downside support candidate. Closing above roughly $585, the confirmation threshold financial analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) was watching before considering a purchase, is encouraging. Losing that threshold again would weaken the rebound; the fund has not yet erased its daily loss.
  • Nvidia ($NVDA) closed at $228.52, moving above the $225-$226 confirmation area Şatıroğlu was watching. Tuesday's $228.64 high is the next short-term test. On a pullback, the same session's $223.06 low is a place to watch for support; losing that area would surrender more of the recovery.

Bonds and precious metals

  • TLT, which holds U.S. Treasuries with maturities above 20 years, rose from its previous close to $78.37. If the lower end of Tuesday's range, $78.20, becomes support, the $78.57 high can be watched as a resistance candidate. Bond prices move inversely to yields; sustained gains in the fund would be consistent with easing yield pressure at those maturities.
  • Shares of GLD ($GLD), which tracks gold, fell to $381.67. Tuesday's $380.09 low is a nearby support candidate; if buyers defend it, progress toward potential resistance at the $384 high would show how much of the loss has been recovered.
  • Silver fund SLV ($SLV) stayed in the lower part of its intraday range at $53.49. Whether Tuesday's $53.18 low can act as support matters; falling below it would increase the risk of a deeper selloff. The same day's $54.34 high is the first resistance candidate above.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is around $83,478 this morning. The high of the last completed daily range, $84,073, is a resistance candidate; holding above it could open room for gains. The $80,943 low below is a more distant support candidate, so a pullback extending there would represent a substantial price decline.
  • Ethereum is around $2,503; the latest daily high of $2,535 is a short-term confirmation threshold. The first daily low to watch for support below is $2,406. Approaching that low would suggest a weaker recovery; the two cryptocurrencies do not have to strengthen at the same pace.

Red flags

  • Faster inflation, especially outside food and energy, could renew selling in Treasuries. In that case, whether buying seen in the morning or immediately after the release survives through the close becomes more important.
  • If attacks on energy facilities affect production or shipping, they would influence companies' expected costs as well as oil prices. A chip recovery facing both more expensive energy and rising yields could be harder to sustain.

Calendar

  • October 14, 2026, 15:30 TRT: U.S. CPI for September. The headline rate and price changes outside food and energy will be watched together.
  • October 14, 2026: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings. Credit demand, customer activity, and management's outlook matter.
  • October 15, 2026, 15:30 TRT: U.S. PPI for September. The question is whether producer costs are adding pressure to consumer prices.

My analysis

I see renewed buying in chips as useful, but read it as an initial sign limited to a rebound from lower prices. Nvidia can recover while the semiconductor fund still finishes the day lower. Rather than drawing a conclusion about the entire sector from a single strong stock, I will watch how broadly buying spreads to other companies.

To become more positive after the release, I would want Treasury prices to retain their gains and chips to hold the ground they have recovered. Softer-than-expected inflation alongside lively bank customer activity could be mutually supportive. But if lower inflation accompanies weakening demand, relief on rates alone will not remove concerns about company profits.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.