U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while the May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000. Even so, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record close of 7,757.64, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3%. This time, weaker data lifted equities by easing interest-rate pressure.

The full report is still not reassuring. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, labor force participation slipped to 61.4%, down 0.7 percentage point since January. Annual hourly wage growth fell to 3.2%, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.64%. For now, the market is pricing the balance between growth and rates more than fear of inflation.

Corporate results supported that balance on Friday. Airbnb rose 15.4% after strong results and a higher revenue forecast; small companies also joined the advance. The next test is whether Wednesday's consumer inflation report confirms expectations for lower rates.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 held above 7,750, while IWM ($IWM), which tracks small U.S. companies, remained above $299. With the 10-year yield below 4.70%, a move in IWM through the $303-$305 area would show that the advance is not relying only on large technology stocks.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) and software-company ETF IGV cleared their initial recovery levels. The next thresholds are $725, $585 and $103.70, respectively; Friday's pace cannot be said to be continuing until those levels are cleared.
  • Gold ETF GLD ($GLD) closed at $398.47 and silver ETF SLV at $57.51, both above their prior resistance. Whether the precious-metals advance lasts depends on the 10-year yield not returning to 4.70%.
  • Bitcoin was about $65,026, below resistance at $65,800. Ether was $1,916 near its $1,925 threshold, while XRP at $1.032 remained below $1.04. The record close in equities has not yet turned into a full strengthening in crypto.

What happened?

  • According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July. Local government education lost 50,000 jobs, retail 19,000 and finance 14,000, while healthcare added 22,000. May was revised down by 66,000 and June by 37,000.
  • The unemployment rate was 4.1%, labor force participation 61.4% and the employment-to-population ratio 58.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by only 2 cents to $37.62, and annual wage growth fell to 3.2%. The weakness extends beyond the headline payroll number.
  • According to Associated Press's (@AP) Friday closing data, the S&P 500 finished at 7,757.64, the Dow Jones at 54,036.93, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,690.62 and the Russell 2000 at 3,034.49. Their weekly gains were 3.6%, 3.0%, 5.2% and 3.5%, respectively.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.64% and the two-year yield to 4.20%. Bloomberg's The Close and Yahoo Finance broadcasts stressed that weak employment reduced the likelihood of a rate increase, but their Fed forecasts were not treated as decisions that had already occurred.
  • Airbnb ($ABNB) rose 15.4% after strong results and a higher revenue forecast. At Friday's close, Nvidia ($NVDA) was $223.93, QQQ $722.89, SMH $582.92, IGV $102.68 and IWM $301.51. Growth stocks led, but the rise in small companies showed that participation was not confined to one group.
  • Brent rose 1.3% to $83.47. Associated Press's August 8 assessment said Iran maintained its demand for control over Hormuz and that no agreement had been reached. Although negotiations continue, the lack of normalized physical passage remains a risk for oil, transportation and inflation.

Market levels

Global risk and rates

  • Brent is at $83.47. Support is $83 and $82, while $85 is both resistance and the main risk threshold. A sustained move above $85 would show Hormuz risk again being priced through energy and inflation; below $82 would be the first relief.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.64%. Support is 4.60%, the critical threshold is 4.70% and the main risk boundary is 4.85%. Below 4.60% would support technology valuations; above 4.70% would show the employment-driven relief weakening.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,757.64. Support is 7,750 and 7,700, with resistance at 7,800. To preserve its record close, the index first needs to hold above 7,750 and then clear 7,800; below 7,700 would signal that the advance is becoming fragile.
  • QQQ is at $722.89. Support is $717 and $708.50, with resistance at $725. Above $725 would show the technology advance continuing; below $717 would mean Friday's initial gain had been given back.
  • IWM is at $301.51. Support is $299 and $296, with resistance at $303 and $305. Clearing the $303-$305 area would show the advance spreading more strongly to small companies; below $296 would suggest weak employment is turning into a growth concern.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is at $582.92. Support is $575 and $560, with resistance at $585. The picture is positive above $575; clearing $585 would show the semiconductor advance continuing, while below $560 would indicate deterioration across the sector.
  • Nvidia is at $223.93. Support is $219 and $215, with resistance at $224-$225. The stock has reached the resistance area; a close above $225 would show the advance strengthening, while below $219 would suggest that its initial momentum has faded.
  • IGV is at $102.68. Support is $101 and $97, with resistance at $103.70. Holding $101 would show software moving with semiconductors; above $103.70 would bring renewed strength, while below $97 would break the latest advance.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is about $65,026, Ether $1,916 and XRP $1.032. Bitcoin support is $64,400 and $62,000, with resistance at $65,800; Ether support is $1,890 and $1,850, with resistance at $1,925 and $1,970. XRP has support at $1.00 and a recovery area at $1.04-$1.05.
  • GLD is at $398.47. Support is $395 and $390, with resistance at $400 and $405. SLV is at $57.51; support is $56.75 and $56.10, with resistance at $58 and $60. Both funds cleared their prior resistance, but rates and inflation data will test the move in the new week.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 closed Friday down 0.14% at 13,779.39 after reaching 13,956.18 during the day. Support is 13,700 and 13,600, with resistance at 13,956 and 14,000. The rise in 341 stocks against declines in 233 showed that the broader market was stronger despite the index's negative close.
  • The indicative dollar/TL price at 07:27 TRT was 47.7436. Support is 47.70 and 47.59, while 48.00 is both resistance and the risk threshold. If the exchange rate moves above 48.00 as Brent also rises above $85, import and energy costs will rise in the same direction for local companies.

Red flags

  • If the 10-year yield keeps falling while the S&P 500 drops below 7,700 and IWM below $296, the market will have started reading weak employment as a growth risk rather than a rate opportunity.
  • If Brent and the 10-year yield rise above $85 and 4.70% together, the relief from employment will give way again to inflation and valuation pressure.
  • If QQQ falls below $717, SMH below $575 and IGV below $101 together, Friday's technology advance will narrow; the record index level will not be confirmed by sector participation.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,600 while dollar/TL moves above 48.00 and Brent above $85, equity, currency and energy risk will work in the same direction in Turkey.

Calendar

  • August 12, 15:30 TRT: U.S. July consumer inflation and real earnings will be released. The pass-through of energy and services prices to consumers will determine how weak employment affects the Fed.
  • August 13, 15:30 TRT: U.S. July producer inflation will be released. Oil, transportation and other input costs will be watched for pressure on company margins.

My analysis

Friday's advance was less a case of the market treating bad data directly as good news than a response to the report's composition. Payrolls turned negative, wage growth slowed and prior months were revised down, while unemployment did not rise sharply. That combination reduced near-term interest-rate pressure and supported the value of growth stocks.

The real distinction will appear in the new week. If the 10-year yield falls below 4.60% while the S&P 500 and IWM hold support, the market is pricing a controlled slowdown. If both indicators lose support despite falling yields, the same data will be read as a revenue and demand risk rather than relief.

Earnings are providing a buffer for this transition for now, with Airbnb the clearest example. Employment weakness is not limited to one month, however, and the downward revisions are changing the trend. If consumer inflation is stronger than expected, support from lower rates will fade; if it is weak, the resilience of company revenue will matter more.

Sources

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July employment report: bls.gov
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026 release calendar: bls.gov
  • Associated Press, August 7 U.S. markets and Treasury yields: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, completed U.S. index closes: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, August 8 Hormuz assessment: apnews.com
  • U.S. ETF, stock and crypto prices: alpaca.markets
  • BIST 100 close and market breadth: piyasadetay.com
  • Dollar/TL indicative price: piyasadetay.com
  • Bloomberg Television, The Close: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance Live, daily market broadcast: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance, employment reaction: youtu.be
  • CNBC Television, Market Close: youtu.be

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.