Brent crude fell 5% to $83.87 in Monday's Asian trading, while U.S. benchmark WTI fell 4.8% to $80.58. President Donald Trump's decision to suspend new attacks on Iran took Brent below the $85 relief threshold from Friday's $87.93 close. Oil gave the first and strongest response to the statement.

Iran's response, however, is narrower than the full reopening Trump described. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks with Oman on a new route through Hormuz were in their final stage; Iran's Foreign Ministry said the arrangement would not mean a return to prewar conditions. Brent's decline does not mean Hormuz has fully reopened.

The relief did not spread evenly across Asia either. After coordinated U.S. and Japanese yen purchases, the dollar fell as low as 155.20 yen while the Nikkei lost 1.9% and the KOSPI 4.5%; the Hang Seng rose 0.6% and Taiwan 0.7%. Turkish inflation and the U.S. ISM manufacturing report will show today whether lower oil can genuinely ease currency and rate pressure.

Key takeaways

  • The first price signal is positive, but the energy shock cannot be considered over until Hormuz traffic increases and tanker security improves.
  • The Iran-Oman talks concern a new route through Hormuz that both countries would accept, while the Monday talks announced by Trump target a broader U.S.-Iran agreement. The two negotiating tracks should not be confused.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, was at $687.89; the semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) at $540.52; and IWM ($IWM), which tracks small U.S. companies, at $291.18. Bitcoin was around $62,889 and Ethereum at $1,858; oil has fallen, but the rally has not yet broadened.

What happened?

  • According to the Associated Press (@AP), President Donald Trump said Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar preferred negotiations to another attack and that U.S.-Iran talks would begin Monday afternoon. No venue, participants or deadline were announced; there is a meeting timetable, but no outcome.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the talks with Oman over Hormuz had reached their final stage. Iran's Foreign Ministry said the proposed route would have to respect both countries' sovereignty and security concerns and that the strait would not return to its prewar arrangement; this is not a full reopening.
  • Maritime data cited by The Guardian show that Hormuz traffic slowed on Monday. An explosion was reported near a tanker on Sunday, and the ship and crew were reported safe. Oil prices fell, but physical transit and security have not shown the same relief.
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed the coordinated yen purchases on July 31. Katayama did not rule out further joint intervention; the currency move came not only from market expectations, but also from direct policy intervention.
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.9% to 63,140.68, while South Korea's KOSPI dropped 4.5% to 6,298.75. Hong Kong rose 0.6% and Taiwan 0.7%; lower oil did not produce a one-way rally across Asia.
  • In the United States on Friday, Amazon rose 15.3% while Apple fell 7.4% and Micron 5.9%. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite 1%; company results created a pronounced split within the artificial-intelligence and technology theme.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent was at $83.87 and WTI at $80.58. Brent has support at $83, initial resistance at $85 and its main risk area at $90-$92; WTI has support at $80, initial resistance at $83 and a stronger risk threshold at $85. Energy pressure eases while Brent stays below $85, but lasting relief also requires an increase in tanker traffic.
  • The dollar fell as low as 155.20 yen. USD/JPY has support at 155, initial resistance at 158 and a renewed intervention-risk threshold at 160. A move below 155 could increase the currency pressure on Japanese companies' foreign earnings; a return to 158-160 would bring yen policy back into focus.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.75% in the last completed session and the 30-year yield 5.27%. The 10-year has support at 4.65% and resistance at 4.85%; the 30-year has support at 5.20% and resistance at 5.30%. A move in the 10-year yield above 4.85% would pressure growth-stock valuations even if oil falls.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72 and QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, at $687.89. The S&P 500 has support at 7,450 and resistance at 7,500; QQQ has support at $680, initial resistance at $690 and a strong continuation threshold at $700. Clearing both initial resistance levels would make it easier for Friday's rally to continue.

Themes and ETFs

  • The semiconductor ETF SMH was at $540.52, IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, at $291.18 and the software-company ETF IGV ($IGV) at $94.59. SMH has support at $535 and resistance at $550, IWM support at $290 and resistance at $295, and IGV support at $93 and resistance at $95. The rally cannot be considered broadening beyond technology until IWM clears $295.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin was around $62,889, Ethereum at $1,858 and XRP at $1.074. Bitcoin has support at $62,000 and initial resistance at $64,400, Ethereum support at $1,850 and resistance at $1,880, and XRP support at $1.05 and resistance at $1.09. Until Bitcoin reclaims $64,400, oil's decline should not be considered a strong change in direction for crypto.
  • The gold ETF GLD ($GLD) closed at $371.47 and the silver ETF SLV ($SLV) at $52.37. GLD has support at $370 and resistance at $375.50; SLV has support at $52 and resistance at $53.30. The odds of precious metals clearing their initial resistance levels are low until long-term yields fall.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 closed at 13,458.10. In Anadolu Agency's July 31 technical framework, 13,300 and 13,200 are support, while 13,600 and 13,700 are resistance. A move in the BIST 100 above 13,600 would strengthen Friday's recovery; below 13,200 would show local risk outweighing the relief from oil.
  • The dollar was at TRY 47.52 on Friday. TRY 47.35 is support, 47.50 a first threshold already crossed and 47.70 the next resistance level. If July inflation exceeds expectations while the exchange rate rises above 47.70, pressure on local rates and company costs will increase together.

Red flags

  • If Monday's U.S.-Iran talks do not begin, the Iran-Oman route is not implemented or tanker traffic slows again, oil's initial decline could reverse quickly; Brent moving above $85 and then $92 would price that risk.
  • If USD/JPY falls rapidly below 155 as the Nikkei sell-off grows, or the pair returns above 160 and creates expectations of another intervention, currency intervention could turn into a new wave of volatility.
  • If Turkey's monthly inflation exceeds the 1.82% forecast, the dollar rises above TRY 47.70 and the BIST 100 falls below 13,300, lower oil will have only a limited effect on the local market.
  • If QQQ falls below $680, SMH below $535 and IWM below $290 together, Friday's technology rally will have reversed without broadening.
  • If new orders weaken while prices paid rise in the ISM manufacturing report and the 10-year yield moves above 4.85%, growth and inflation concerns will intensify at the same time.

Calendar

  • August 3, 10:00 a.m. TRT: TurkStat will release July consumer inflation. The AA Finance survey expects 1.82% monthly inflation and about 31.80% annually; the headline result and the direction of services inflation should be read together.
  • Afternoon of August 3, time and venue not announced: According to Trump, U.S.-Iran talks will resume. Whether the meeting takes place, who participates and whether Hormuz is included each require separate confirmation.
  • August 3, 5:00 p.m. TRT: The U.S. July ISM manufacturing index will be released. New orders will indicate growth, while prices paid will show cost pressure outside oil.
  • August 4, 5:00 p.m. TRT: U.S. June job openings will be released. The focus will be whether labor demand is cooling despite high long-term yields.
  • After the U.S. close on August 4: AMD will report second-quarter results; its conference call will begin at midnight TRT on August 5. Revenue, data-center demand and profitability all matter for SMH to approach $550 resistance.
  • August 5: ADP will release its July private-sector employment report. The U.S. July ISM services index will follow at 5:00 p.m. TRT the same day; employment and price components should be read together.
  • August 6, 3:30 p.m. TRT: Preliminary U.S. second-quarter productivity and unit labor cost data will be released. The effect of wage pressure on company profits and Treasury yields will be monitored.
  • August 7, 3:30 p.m. TRT: The U.S. July employment report will be released. The 10-year yield's response will matter as much as employment, unemployment and wage growth.

My analysis

Today's move is pricing expectations of lower energy risk, not a completed agreement. Lasting relief requires the physical flow through Hormuz and buying across the wider market to accompany oil's decline.

The sell-offs in Japan and South Korea show that lower oil is not enough on its own. Japanese shares are also pricing the risk that a stronger yen will reduce exporters' earnings; Asian indices and Brent are reading the same political news through different channels.

The strongest positive scenario would combine Brent staying below $83-$85, confirmed tanker transit, a move in the 10-year yield toward 4.65%, and QQQ, SMH and IWM clearing $690, $550 and $295, respectively. Until those conditions are met, oil's decline is not relief that has spread across the market.

Sources

  • Associated Press, August 3 Asian markets, oil and the dollar-yen rate: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, August 2 oil prices and attack pause: apnews.com
  • The Guardian, August 3 U.S.-Iran talks and the Iran-Oman Hormuz route: theguardian.com
  • Anadolu Agency, Iran-Oman talks reach their final stage: aa.com.tr
  • Anadolu Agency, Iranian press disputes claim of a full Hormuz reopening: aa.com.tr
  • Anadolu Agency, coordinated U.S.-Japan yen intervention: aa.com.tr
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2026 daily Treasury yield curve: home.treasury.gov
  • Anadolu Agency, BIST 100 close and technical levels: aa.com.tr
  • BloombergHT, July 31 BIST and currency summary: bloomberght.com
  • Anadolu Agency, July inflation expectations survey: aa.com.tr
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2026 release calendar: bls.gov
  • Institute for Supply Management, 2026 report calendar: ismworld.org
  • AMD, second-quarter results date and conference-call time: ir.amd.com
  • U.S. ETF and crypto prices: alpaca.markets
  • Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg This Weekend: youtu.be

Not investment advice; for research and monitoring only.