Yesterday's sharp sell-off did not show that the AI theme was over. It showed that investors will now accept high valuations only when they are supported by exceptionally strong earnings.

Micron's results after today's close will help determine whether this is a short-term correction or the beginning of deeper weakness in semiconductors.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 fell 1.44% to 7,365.46 and lost 7,450 support. The next support area is 7,350-7,327. To regain strength, the index must first clear 7,450 and then 7,550.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, fell 3.29% to close at $713.65. The first support is $712 and the second is $700-$705. A stronger recovery first requires $734-$735 and then $745-$750.
  • SMH ($SMH), the semiconductor ETF, fell 7% to $622.05 and lost $640 support. Near support is $624-$616. Micron's earnings after today's close may determine whether SMH can reclaim $640.
  • By contrast, the additional yield investors demand on corporate bonds did not rise materially. Roughly $89 billion of demand for SpaceX's $25 billion bond sale also showed that large companies can still access financing comfortably.
  • Strong bond demand does not mean there is no risk. SpaceX is refinancing expensive short-term debt, and investors are demanding a higher yield than they do from comparable issuers. The high cost of AI and space investment remains an important risk.
  • Brent is at $76.17 and the US 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.48%. Oil is not adding to inflation pressure for now; the most important source of pressure on technology shares remains the long-term yield near 4.50%.

What happened?

  • The June 23 sell-off began in South Korea. The KOSPI fell around 10%, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix posted double-digit losses. Concern that memory prices could fall in 2027 called into question whether the rapid semiconductor rally could continue.
  • Other market reports cited warnings about leveraged funds, portfolio rebalancing and profit-taking after the rally as additional causes. It would therefore be wrong to attribute the move to a single tax rumour.
  • The selling spread to the US. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.21%, the S&P 500 1.44%, Micron 13.18%, Nvidia 4.13% and SMH 7%. The Dow declined only 0.09%, showing that the selling had not yet spread across the broader economy and remained concentrated in AI and semiconductor shares.
  • Alessio de Longis of ProShares told Bloomberg Television that the real danger would be a rapid rise in companies' borrowing costs. Since that had not happened, the move still resembled a short-term correction. If financing conditions deteriorate, the selling could spread to other markets.
  • Micron ($MU) reports after today's close. The stock fell to $1,051.77 ahead of the release. The key issues are not just reported earnings, but memory prices, demand for high-end memory used in AI systems and management's outlook for future profitability.
  • SpaceX ($SPCX) completed a $25 billion bond sale. The company will use the proceeds to refinance expensive short-term debt. Strong demand improves access to capital, but high investment spending and violent post-IPO price moves do not eliminate equity risk.
  • Binance founder Changpeng Zhao described the current period as a “crypto winter” in an interview with Yahoo Finance. In his view, AI payments, stablecoins and the tokenisation of real assets may support long-term growth. Bitcoin, however, remains below $64,000.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu also said on Kanal Finans that the sell-off did not automatically mark the beginning of a long-term decline. He noted that the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and SMH had broken important supports and recommended monitoring the next support and recovery levels.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $76.17. Support is $72, the first resistance is $80 and $95-$96 is the important war-and-inflation risk zone. While oil remains below that zone, rates matter more than energy as a source of pressure on technology shares.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.48%. The 4.40% level is support and a relief threshold; 4.50% is the risk boundary. A move above 4.50% increases pressure on technology companies whose earnings are expected further in the future.
  • The dollar index is at 101.56. Support is 100-101 and the 102-103 band is a resistance and risk area. A stronger dollar in that band could increase pressure on gold, silver and crypto.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,365.46. The 7,350-7,327 area is support, 7,450 is the first resistance and 7,550 is the stronger resistance. The sell-off cannot be called over before the index returns above 7,450.
  • QQQ is at $713.65. The first support is $712, the second support area is $700-$705, first resistance is $734-$735 and stronger resistance is $745-$750. Technology shares first need to clear $734-$735 for the recovery to strengthen.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is at $622.05 and testing the $624-$616 support zone. The first resistance is $640 and the stronger resistance is $668-$670. A move below $616 would signal that the semiconductor sell-off may deepen further.
  • IGV ($IGV), the software ETF, is at $87.32. Support is $86-$86.50, $89 is the first recovery level and $92 is stronger resistance. Software fell less than semiconductors, but it cannot be considered clearly stronger before $89 is cleared.
  • Micron is at $1,051.77. Yesterday's low near $1,038.50 is the first support, $1,125 is the first recovery level and roughly $1,210 is stronger resistance. A sharp post-earnings move is possible, so forward guidance matters alongside the reported figures.
  • Nvidia ($NVDA) is at $200.04. The $200 level is the first important support, $208-$209 is the recovery level and roughly $214 is resistance. A close below $200 would show the semiconductor sell-off deepening in Nvidia as well.
  • SpaceX is at $156.11. The first support is $147-$150, the main support is $135 and resistance is $174. Bond demand is positive, but the violent price action cannot be called over before the stock returns above $174.
  • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) is at $95.12. The $92-$95 band is support, $100 is the first recovery level and $106-$110 is stronger resistance. The long-term space story continues, but relying only on the story is risky until the stock clears these levels.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is near $62,600. The first support is $62,000, the main support is $60,000, the first recovery area is $63,500-$64,000 and resistance is $67,000-$67,500. A move below $62,000 raises downside risk; a strong recovery first requires breaking $64,000.
  • Ether is near $1,672. The $1,600-$1,655 band is support, $1,700 is the first recovery level and $1,780-$1,840 is resistance. The setup remains weak below $1,700.
  • XRP is near $1.10. Support is $1.08, the first recovery level is $1.12 and resistance is $1.16. The rise cannot be considered durable before the price returns above $1.12.
  • Spot gold is near $4,095. The $4,000-$4,050 band is support, $4,200 is the first recovery level and $4,400-$4,500 is stronger resistance. Tunç Şatıroğlu sees $4,800-$5,000 as possible over the medium term, but that is not a short-term target while the dollar and rates remain high.
  • Spot silver is at $61.77 and SLV ($SLV) closed at $55.73. For spot silver, the $60-$62 band is support and $65-$66 the first recovery area; for SLV, support is $55 and first resistance is $59. Because silver is more volatile than gold, a support break could produce a steeper decline.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 was near 14,530 in morning trading. The 14,440-14,460 band is support, 14,600 is the first recovery level and 15,000 is important resistance. The short-term setup cannot be considered strong again before the index returns above 14,600.
  • USD/TRY is around 46.50. Support is 46.20 and resistance is 47.00. The spot currency looks calm, but reserves, external financing conditions and oil prices are more important indicators of Turkey risk.

Red flags

  • If the S&P 500 falls below 7,327 and cannot reclaim 7,450, the risk of selling spreading to the broad market increases.
  • If QQQ loses $700 and SMH loses $616, the short-term correction in AI and semiconductor shares could become a deeper decline.
  • Even if Micron reports strong results, the stock could keep falling if its outlook for memory prices or profitability disappoints.
  • A rapid rise in the additional yield demanded on corporate bonds would be the most important sign that selling is spreading from technology to the broader market.
  • If the US 10-year yield remains above 4.50% while Brent returns toward $95-$96, technology would face pressure from both rates and energy.
  • If Bitcoin falls below $62,000, and especially below $60,000, expectations of a sharper crypto decline strengthen.
  • A move below 14,440 in the BIST 100 would increase the risk that the recent short-term uptrend has broken.

Calendar

  • Wednesday, June 24 at 17:00 Istanbul time: US May new-home sales.
  • Wednesday, June 24 at 17:30: the EIA weekly petroleum status report. Physical inventories are important for Brent's direction within the $72-$80 range.
  • Wednesday, June 24 after the US close: Micron reports. This is the most important company release for the weekly direction of semiconductor and AI shares.
  • Thursday, June 25 at 15:30: US headline and core PCE, weekly jobless claims, the first-quarter growth revision, durable-goods orders and personal income and spending.
  • Friday, June 26 at 17:00: the University of Michigan's final consumer-sentiment reading.

My analysis

The key distinction today is not whether AI is over. It is which companies can convert the investment wave and elevated expectations into actual cash flow.

Yesterday's move showed three things at once. First, a large number of investors had crowded into the same semiconductor shares.

Second, the US 10-year yield near 4.50% leaves little room for error in highly valued technology companies.

Third, companies can still borrow comfortably, so for now the selling resembles a correction in expensive technology shares more than a crisis spreading through the entire market.

Strong demand for SpaceX's $25 billion bond sale supports that reading. Investors still provide capital to large technology projects, but they want higher yields and a clearer explanation of how the investment will produce returns.

Micron's report is therefore more than the result of one company. It will show whether strong demand for memory chips used in AI systems continues.

In my view, the long-term growth story in AI, energy, data centres, space and digital payments remains intact. In the short term, however, price levels matter more. It is too early to say that strong buying demand has returned before the S&P 500 regains 7,450, QQQ $734-$735, SMH $640 and Bitcoin $64,000.

Sources

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.