Micron delivered a forceful answer to two days of panic in AI stocks. One earnings report, however, does not prove that the correction is over. Today's US inflation data and the way semiconductor stocks trade after the open will show whether buying demand can last.

Key takeaways

  • Micron ($MU) reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $41.46 billion and adjusted earnings of $25.11 per share. For the next quarter, it expects roughly $50 billion of revenue, $31 of earnings per share and an 86% gross margin. The stock rose toward $1,214 after closing at $1,048.51.
  • The result shows that memory demand for AI remains strong. Micron's multi-year customer agreements also suggest that demand is not merely short-lived and give the company better visibility over future revenue.
  • Even so, the S&P 500 fell 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.43% on June 24, while the Dow gained 0.35% and the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF RSP rose 0.71%. The selling was concentrated in large technology and software stocks rather than the entire market.
  • On the morning of June 25, Nasdaq futures were up about 1.7%, S&P 500 futures 0.5%, and South Korea's KOSPI rebounded 5.4%. The first reaction is strong, but semiconductor shares still need to hold their gains during the regular session.
  • Brent fell to $72.69 and the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.41%. Relief in oil and rates supports technology shares; the day's primary macro risk is the US personal consumption expenditures price index at 15:30 Istanbul time.

What happened?

  • US markets closed mixed on June 24. The S&P 500 fell to 7,358.22 and the Nasdaq Composite to 25,476.63, while the Dow rose to 51,848.90. Gains of 0.46% in IWM and 0.71% in RSP show capital moving into areas beyond mega-cap technology.
  • Micron's official release showed revenue rising from $23.86 billion in the previous quarter to $41.46 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 84.9%. Cash from operations reached $25.39 billion and adjusted free cash flow after capital expenditure was $18.3 billion.
  • Bloomberg Television's Asia programme stressed that AI-driven demand may continue to exceed supply even as new capacity comes online in 2027 and 2028. That is positive for memory producers but a cost risk for technology companies that consume memory.
  • Bora Özkent interpreted the move as a technology correction rather than a broad collapse because the VIX remained below 20 and equal-weight indices were strong. He also noted that technical risk persisted after short-term moving averages broke.
  • Yahoo Finance highlighted the same divergence: mega-cap technology and semiconductor shares were weak, while consumer, industrial, healthcare and real-estate stocks were stronger. The decline in the 10-year yield was positive, but investors remained cautious ahead of Micron.
  • Jim Cramer explained on CNBC's Mad Money that widely shared expectations are rapidly priced in; the real difference comes from company results and forward guidance. Micron became the latest example.
  • Kanal Finans's June 24 commentary said the S&P 500 was trying to hold near 7,350 while QQQ and semiconductor shares remained under pressure before Micron. Crypto and metals were weak, and the 14,440-14,460 area was identified as critical for the BIST 100.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $72.69. The $70-$72 area is support, $76 is the first resistance and $80 is the more important resistance. As long as oil remains below $80, inflation pressure eases; $95-$96 remains the threshold for war and global risk.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.41%. The 4.40% level is support; 4.50% is resistance and a risk threshold for technology shares. A move below 4.40% supports growth stocks, while a return above 4.50% brings valuation pressure back.
  • The dollar index is at 101.60. Support is 100-101 and resistance is 102-103. A stronger dollar above 102 could keep pressure on gold, silver and crypto.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,358.22. The 7,350-7,327 area is support, 7,450 is the first resistance and 7,550 is the stronger resistance. Despite the rise in futures, the correction cannot be called over before 7,450 is cleared.
  • QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $710.62 and rose to roughly $724.54 after Micron. The first support is $712, the main support area is $700-$705, first resistance is $734-$735 and stronger resistance is $745-$750. Holding above $712 during the regular session would be the first positive signal.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH, the semiconductor ETF, closed at $618.92 and rose toward $647 after Micron. The $624-$616 area is support, $640 is the first confirmation level and $668-$670 is resistance. For the recovery in semiconductors to strengthen, SMH needs to hold above $640 in the regular session.
  • Micron rose to around $1,214 after closing at $1,048.51, testing its previous peak area near $1,210. The $1,180-$1,210 band is the first support area and $1,250 is the first psychological resistance. A move below $1,180 would show sellers returning despite the strong report.
  • IGV, the software ETF, is at $86.17. The first support is $86, the lower support area is $83-$84, first resistance is $89 and stronger resistance is $92. Micron helps semiconductors, but it is too early to call a full technology recovery before software regains $89.
  • Nvidia ($NVDA) closed at $199. The $196-$200 band is support, $208-$209 is the first resistance and $214 is the stronger resistance. Micron's result may lift Nvidia above $200; a move below $196 would show that sector selling continues.
  • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) closed at $85.41. Support is $84-$85, first resistance is $92-$95 and stronger resistance is $100. The long-term space story remains intact, but the short-term setup is weak until the stock returns above $92.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is near $61,800. The $60,000-$59,000 area is support, $62,000 is the first resistance and $64,000 is the stronger recovery level. The setup remains fragile below $64,000; a move below $59,000 increases selling pressure.
  • Ether is near $1,653. Support is $1,600, first resistance is $1,700 and the stronger resistance area is $1,780-$1,840. There is no clear strengthening before $1,700 is broken.
  • XRP is near $1.085. Support is $1.05, first resistance is $1.12 and stronger resistance is $1.16. A move below $1.05 increases downside risk; recovery first requires reclaiming $1.12.
  • Spot gold is near $3,984. The first support is $3,950, the main support is $3,900, first resistance is $4,000 and stronger resistance is $4,100-$4,200. Losing $4,000 as support damaged the short-term setup; the medium- to long-term bullish view must be considered separately from short-term price pressure.
  • Spot silver is near $56.83 and SLV closed at $51.78. For spot silver, the $55-$56 band is support and $60 is first resistance; for SLV, support is $50 and resistance is $55. Because silver is more volatile than gold, a break of support can produce a sharper move.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 is near 14,331 and below the previous 14,440-14,460 support area. The first support is 14,200, the main support is 14,000, first resistance is 14,440-14,460 and stronger resistance is 14,600. The short-term picture remains weak until the index returns above 14,440.
  • USD/TRY is near 46.52. Support is 46.20 and resistance is 47.00. Although the currency looks calm, reserves, foreign investor flows and news about market regulation are more consequential for the BIST.

Red flags

  • If Micron and SMH give back most of their after-hours gains during the regular session, even a strong earnings report will have failed to stop technology selling.
  • If the S&P 500 loses 7,327, QQQ loses $700 or SMH loses $616, the correction could deepen again.
  • If PCE inflation is hotter than expected and the 10-year yield rises above 4.50%, Micron-driven optimism could fade.
  • If Bitcoin falls below $59,000, gold below $3,900 or silver below $55, selling pressure across volatile assets increases.
  • If the BIST 100 moves toward 14,000 without reclaiming 14,440, the local market's short-term upward structure deteriorates more clearly.

Calendar

  • Thursday, June 25 at 15:30 Istanbul time: US May PCE inflation, personal income and spending.
  • Thursday, June 25 at 15:30: the third estimate of US first-quarter growth, corporate profits, weekly jobless claims and May durable-goods orders.
  • Thursday, June 25 at 16:30: US markets open. Watch whether Micron, SMH and QQQ can hold their after-hours gains.
  • Friday, June 26 at 17:00: the University of Michigan's final consumer-sentiment reading.

My analysis

Micron's report delivered a strong response to the most bearish interpretation: AI demand was not already ending. Revenue, earnings, margins and next-quarter guidance all rose, while multi-year customer agreements increased confidence in the duration of demand.

That does not mean every technology stock automatically rises. Memory producers benefit from higher prices, but those same prices raise costs for companies that use the chips.

As AI investment continues, the winners and the companies under pressure may diverge more clearly.

Yesterday's market breadth is also important. The Dow, RSP and IWM rose while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell, showing that investors were not abandoning the entire market.

For now, the move looks more like a severe correction and rotation within technology than a broad collapse.

Today's decision comes in two stages. First, PCE will move rates. Then the market will show whether QQQ can advance toward $734-$735 and SMH toward $668-$670. Micron passed the first test; the second is whether the broader market can carry the result.

Sources

  • Micron Technology, fiscal third-quarter 2026 results: investors.micron.com
  • Associated Press, June 24 US market close: apnews.com
  • Bloomberg Television, “Micron Revives AI Trade; SK Hynix Seeks US Listing”: youtube.com
  • Yahoo Finance, “Daily Market Coverage - June 24, 2026”: youtube.com
  • CNBC Television, “Mad Money 06/24/26”: youtube.com
  • Bora Özkent, “Amerikan Borsası Çöküyor mu? Düşüşün Arkasındaki Gerçek Sebepler”: youtube.com
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu, June 24 market commentary: youtube.com
  • US Bureau of Economic Analysis release calendar: bea.gov
  • US Census Bureau economic indicators calendar: census.gov
  • BloombergHT markets: bloomberght.com

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.