The day's central issue is not Micron's earnings alone. Micron showed that demand for AI memory remains exceptionally strong, but on the same day the Nasdaq 100 failed to fully price that optimism because of selling in Apple and other mega-cap technology stocks.

Key takeaways

  • Micron ($MU) closed the June 25 session at $1,213.56. The company reported revenue of $41.456 billion, adjusted earnings of $25.11 per share, an adjusted gross margin of 84.9% and next-quarter revenue guidance of roughly $50 billion. That weakens the argument that AI memory demand has “ended.”
  • The market reaction was not uniform. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 29,440.32 and QQQ ($QQQ) fell to $716.38. Micron was very strong and semiconductors recovered, but the entire mega-cap technology complex did not confirm the move.
  • The PCE inflation measure watched by the Federal Reserve rose to 4.1% year on year. That is a high headline figure. The recent sharp fall in oil, however, may reduce some inflation pressure over the coming months.
  • The BIST 100 closed at 14,259.80, below the 14,440-14,460 area. Turkey's short-term setup therefore remains weak, with no strong recovery signal before 14,600 is reclaimed.
  • Crypto is weaker. Bitcoin is near $59,838, Ether around $1,554 and XRP near $1.032. Remaining below the $60,000, $1,600 and $1.05 supports monitored by Tunç Şatıroğlu keeps the risk picture intact.

What happened?

  • Micron's report was a reminder that the main bottleneck in AI may now be advanced memory capacity rather than computing chips alone. Bora Özkent's central point was that memory is no longer being priced simply as a cyclical commodity; it has become one of the critical constraints in AI infrastructure.
  • Yahoo Finance highlighted the same divergence. Micron rose roughly 15%-16% during the session, while Apple and other large technology shares were under pressure. The debate around Apple's pricing and memory costs shows that AI infrastructure spending may now be flowing through to consumer prices.
  • The correct reading is therefore two-sided. Micron supports the view that the AI investment cycle continues. At the same time, consumer-facing costs, high rates and mega-cap valuations mean the market no longer buys every AI headline automatically.
  • PCE inflation came in high. Yahoo Finance noted that core PCE was closer to expectations and that lower oil could reduce future inflation pressure.
  • Bloomberg Television also carried more hawkish views: some commentators argued that high PCE could keep alive the possibility of rate increases, not just delay rate cuts.
  • Middle East and oil risk has not fully disappeared. Bloomberg Television discussed a reported Iranian-linked attack on a vessel and the intraday rise it caused in oil. Brent was near $74.38 in the morning, still far below the $95-$96 war-and-inflation threshold but vulnerable to headlines.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is near $74.38. The $70-$72 area is first support, and $76 and $80 are the first resistance levels. While Brent remains below $80, pressure on global inflation and the Fed stays limited. A return above $95-$96 would signal that war-and-inflation risk is growing again.
  • The dollar index is near 101.36. Support is 100-101 and resistance is 102-103. If the dollar settles above 102, pressure could increase on gold, silver and crypto.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,357.49. The 7,350-7,327 support area remains critical; 7,450 is the first recovery level and 7,550 is stronger resistance. The index has held support for now, but needs to reclaim 7,450 for upside confirmation.
  • The Nasdaq 100 closed at 29,440.32. Holding above the 29,300 support monitored by Tunç Şatıroğlu limits short-term damage. For QQQ, practical supports are $712 and $700-$705; the first recovery level is $734-$735 and stronger resistance is $745-$750.
  • SMH ($SMH), the semiconductor ETF, closed at $636.88. Support is $624 and $608; $640 is the first confirmation level and $668-$670 is stronger resistance. Micron's effect was powerful, but SMH's failure to close above $640 still warrants caution.
  • Micron closed at $1,213.56. The $1,180-$1,210 band is post-earnings support and $1,250 is the first psychological resistance. Holding the band keeps the AI memory theme alive; a return below $1,180 would mean the earnings rally is being given back.
  • IGV ($IGV), the software ETF, closed at $84.76. Lower support is $83-$84, first resistance is $86 and $89 is the stronger recovery level. Falling below $86 support shows software is not as strong as semiconductors.

Themes and ETFs

  • IWM, the US small-cap ETF, is at $298.91. Support is $294-$295 and first resistance is $300. Small caps have not completely broken down, but it is too early to infer a strong rotation before $300 is cleared.
  • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) fell to $80.69. The first support is $80, $84-$85 is now the first resistance and $92-$95 is the stronger recovery area. The space theme may remain compelling over the long term, but short-term price action is extremely risky.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is near $59,838. Support is $59,000, first resistance is $62,000 and $64,000 is the stronger confirmation level. Remaining below $60,000 keeps the setup weak.
  • Ether is near $1,554. The $1,520-$1,600 area is support and $1,700 is first resistance. It is too early to read a strong improvement in crypto before $1,700 is reclaimed.
  • XRP is near $1.032. Support is $1.00, first resistance is $1.05 and $1.12 is the stronger recovery level. Breaking $1.05 support has increased psychological pressure.
  • Gold futures are near $4,026. Support is $4,000 and $3,950; the $4,100-$4,200 band is resistance and recovery. The long-term story is separate; in the short term, the direction of the dollar and rates is decisive.
  • Silver futures are near $56.67 and SLV ($SLV) closed at $52.36. Support is $55-$56 and the $60-$62 band is resistance and recovery. Silver is more volatile than gold and can react more sharply to the same news.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 closed at 14,259.80. Support is 14,200 and 14,000; the 14,440-14,460 area is the first recovery zone and 14,600 is the stronger confirmation level. The short-term setup remains weak until 14,600 is reclaimed.
  • USD/TRY is near 46.58. Support is 46.20 and resistance is 47.00. The currency looks calm, but the key issues for the BIST are foreign-investor confidence, reserves, market rules and political risk.

Red flags

  • If the S&P 500 falls below 7,327 or QQQ loses the $700-$705 zone, Micron-driven semiconductor optimism will not have been enough for the broad market.
  • A move in SMH below the $624-$608 support zone would weaken the post-Micron semiconductor recovery. A return in Micron below $1,180 would send the same negative signal.
  • If debate over rate increases intensifies after PCE and US Treasury yields turn higher, the Nasdaq 100, software and long-duration growth shares could face renewed pressure.
  • If Brent establishes itself above $80, the inflation-relief story weakens. A return to $95-$96 would create a new global war-and-inflation alarm.
  • If Bitcoin falls below $59,000 and the BIST 100 below 14,000, two weak links become even more visible: crypto and Turkey risk.

Calendar

  • The main focus today is the US session. Closing confirmation in Micron, SMH and QQQ is important. If Micron remains strong while SMH and QQQ stay weak, the message is “good company-specific news, caution in the broad market.”
  • Following yesterday's PCE release, monitor Fed communication and US Treasury yields. The market is no longer pricing only “when will the Fed cut?” It is also asking “how patient can the Fed remain if oil and inflation rise again?”
  • Monitor Middle East headlines in oil. Brent within $70-$80 is relieving for inflation; above $80, and especially near $95-$96, the market psychology deteriorates.

My analysis

My central conclusion is that Micron's report did not show the AI investment cycle ending. It showed that the cycle remains powerful. But the market no longer works as simply as “if it has AI, buy it.”

Demand for memory used in AI infrastructure may be exceptionally strong, while consumer-facing companies such as Apple may have to pass higher costs on through prices. That divides the AI story in two: supportive for infrastructure suppliers, but a source of cost pressure for companies closer to the end user.

Today's decision tree therefore comes down to three levels:

  • Can the S&P 500 hold 7,350-7,327 and reclaim 7,450?
  • Can SMH establish itself above $640 and carry Micron's strength across the sector?
  • Can Brent remain below $80 and limit pressure on the Fed after PCE?

If all three answers are positive, yesterday's selling may remain a short-term digestion. If the answers are weak, the market will stay more selective and cautious even after an exceptional Micron report.

Sources

Micron Technology official results: investors.micron.com

Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtube.com

Bora Özkent ile Nasdaq: youtube.com

Yahoo Finance: youtube.com

Bloomberg Television: youtube.com

Yahoo Finance market data.

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.